What to expect from dentistry in the next 5 years

The U.S. is amid a generational transition that may bring major changes like shifts in practice modality, but what else will happen within the next five years remains unclear. The perspective was published in the Journal of the American Dental Association.

Early-career dentists not only look different than late-career dentists, but they practice differently, and those changes may reshape the future of oral healthcare, the authors wrote.

"Our analysis cannot determine whether these changes are good or bad for patients, providers, or for any other stakeholders," wrote the authors, led by Marko Vujicic, PhD, chief economist and vice president of the ADA Health Policy Institute (JADA, November 24, 2024).

In 2001, many dentists were in their 40s. However, there were not many in their early 30s or late 60s. By 2017, demographics shifted, with two large groups of dentists emerging: those in their 30s and those in their 60s. This change was due to the large baby boomer group nearing retirement and the expansion of dental school enrollment during this period.

In 2028, it is projected that older dentists will have largely aged out of the workforce while dental school graduation numbers continue to climb. Therefore, the dentist workforce will be younger in 2028 than it is in 2024, the authors wrote.

This generational shift is critical because the demographic profile of early-career dentists is different than those nearing retirement. As of October 2024, the 65 and older group is only 15% women and 81% white. On the flipside, the 2023 graduating class was 55% female and 48% were white.

These changes in race and gender are important because they have implications for workforce outcomes. For example, women dentists are more likely to treat patients on Medicaid and are less likely to own their practices. Furthermore, non-white dentists are more likely to treat patients who have Medicaid, they wrote.

Additionally, generational change may speed shifting practice modality trends. For example, young dentists may be less likely to own practices and are more likely to practice in groups or be affiliated with dental service organizations than late-career clinicians. Moreover, student debt does not appear to be a significant driver of practice modality choices for younger dentists, the authors wrote.

Though this analysis cannot determine how these changes will affect patients, providers, and other stakeholders, it may be worthwhile to keep in mind that it may affect who enters the field of dentistry, how dental schools educate students, and whether it results in more dental and medical collaboration, they wrote.

"The next 3 to 5 years are an important time for the dental profession as the generational transition finishes," Vujicic and colleagues wrote.